Benefit Forecasts for the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2026

The Treasury’s Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) 2026 released on 29 September 2026 includes benefit number forecasts as part of the overall fiscal forecasts

This publication describes the Ministry of Social Development’s (MSD) key benefit number forecasts from the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) 2026. PREFU 2026 includes benefit data up to 10 August 2026.

The last forecast was the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) 2026, which was published in May 2026.

The purpose of a PREFU is to support voters and political parties to make informed decisions by providing independent, transparent and up to date information. The New Zealand Government spends a large portion of the Budget on Benefits or Related Expenses, accounting for around 30 percent of Core Crown Expenses.

MSD's forecasts use month average figures for benefit numbers at all ages, which differs from official reporting. These differ because MSD's official reporting defines working-age clients as aged 18-64, and also includes Emergency Benefit, Emergency Maintenance Allowance, Jobseeker Support Student Hardship and Youth Payment/Young Parent Payment which are counted at month end.

For the purposes of this publication, the number of people on a working-age benefit is the total number of people who are receiving Jobseeker Support (excluding Jobseeker Support Student Hardship), Sole Parent Support and Supported Living Payment for all ages.

The number of people receiving a working-age benefit was around 414,100 people in July 2026 and is expected to remain around this level throughout 2026

From 2027, the number of people receiving a working-age benefit is expected to decrease to around 397,200 in June 2031.

Figure 1: Working-age benefit numbers

Figure 1 shows the historic and forecast number of people on a working-age benefit.

The dotted line shows the actual number of people who received a working-age benefit between June 2019 and July 2026. MSD’s forecasts of the number of people expected to receive a working-age benefit at BEFU 2026 and PREFU 2026 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line, respectively.

The number of people receiving Jobseeker Support (JS) was around 219,900 in July 2026 and is expected to remain around this level throughout 2026

From 2027, the number of people receiving JS is expected to decrease to around 200,100 in June 2031.

Figure 2: Jobseeker Support numbers

Figure 2 shows the historic and forecast number of people receiving Jobseeker Support.

The dotted line shows the actual number of people that received Jobseeker Support between June 2019 and July 2026. MSD’s forecasts of the number of people expected to receive Jobseeker Support at BEFU 2026 and PREFU 2026 are displayed by the dashed line and solid line, respectively.