The Implications of MMP for Social Policy in New Zealand

Jonathan Boston

As a result of a referendum in late 1993, a system of proportional representation will soon replace the long-standing first-past-the-post system. Overseas experience suggests that under the new Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system single-party governments will be rare, and New Zealand will most probably be governed either by multi-party coalitions or single-party minority governments.

This paper discusses the possible implications of MMP for social policy, and notes that philosophical divisions over social policy will be at the heart of many of the realignments associated with the change to MMP. While it is unclear how this will affect social policy outcomes, the analysis suggests that the odds marginally favour a victory for centre-left parties at the first MMP election. The implications for this and other scenarios for various coalitions holding the balance of power are discussed, as are the areas of social policy that future governments need to address.

The paper concludes that in the long term the future direction of social policy will depend on whether Parliament is dominated by coalitions of the centre-left or centre-right, which in turn will depend not only on party alignments but on evolving public attitudes to the role of the state.